My 2025 Real Estate Forecast

(from the December 2024 issue of our monthly newsletter, Properties Connoisseur)

1. 20 Years of Uninterrupted Real Estate Experience – Prior to being on my own, I was previously employed with a reputable developer, assigned in Marketing, Sales Network Development, International Sales Operation, Project Development, and General Management. In short, albeit a short 6-month banking stint, Real Estate is all I know. Nevertheless, unlike other practitioners, I am able to see things through different lenses as I have been to the corporate, sales and consumer sides of the equation. Using published articles alone would be insufficient, as quite often, the news is but the “tip of the iceberg”.
2. Non-Exclusivity – I have no exclusive arrangement with any real estate company and therefore, my loyalty is with my customers; I have accredited myself with projects I deem would best serve the interest of my clients and consider their welfare ahead of anyone else’s. On the other hand, I can freely compare between developers and across different projects, having seen and inspected them without need to patronize excessively.
3. Grounded Operations – We have a small company and do much of the work ourselves. We go around, inspect properties, attend events, talk to both buyers and sellers, and reconcile what we read and hear with what we see and experience first-hand. Thus, our opinions are based on actual occurrences rather mere press releases and public relations.

Of course, I would like to reserve the right to make mistakes, but then again, I have not heard of anyone predicting the future perfectly, so with a combination of available information and daily grit-and-grind, here are some of my predictions for 2025:

Metro Manila – Tepid Sales

There are a variety of factors that will contribute to this phenomenon, such as oversupply of condominiums, drastically raised market and zonal values, increasing gap between seller and buyer valuation, and lack of catalyst for dramatic business growth; consequently, recent developments and indications do not seem to point towards alleviating the situation. The CREATE MORE Act allows companies to do 50% WFH, thus easing the need to increase office space for expansion; multinational companies have been observed to be more inclined to setup new offices in the provinces rather than business districts to capitalize on improved connectivity and lower operational costs, whereas office supply in Metro Manila is projected to continue to increase as buildings launched pre-pandemic are now being completed. As such, the prospects of investing in Metro Manila will be lukewarm, except perhaps in Quezon City, wherein a convergence of large-scale developers – Ayala Land, Shang Properties, and Robinsons Land – seem to be creating excitement in both the C-5 corridor and North Edsa district.

Provinces – The New Battlefront

After nearly 2 decades of concentration in the capital, provincial locations are bound to have an increase in investments from the country’s top developers.  In Bulacan, particularly San Jose Del Monte, high-end developers are establishing their footprint, with Ayala Land Premier taking the lead with Miravera at Altaraza, and soon Rockwell Land (project underway) and possibly Filinvest Land. In Batangas, again, Ayala Land has taken the lead with its Areza Estate and Alveo’s South Palmgrove, now to be succeeded by Rockwell Land projects in Lipa and Nasugbu launching next year. Finally, there is a series of moves by Manila-based developers that indicate increased interest in the Queen City of the South, Cebu – Rockwell Land began the trend with its IPI Center, followed by Bauhinia Residences by Shang Properties, and Kalea Heights by DMCI. Recently, Ayala Land has taken full control of the 17.5-hectare Gatewalk Centrale, with its mall slated for opening next year featuring the first ever Landmark Department Store outside of Luzon.

With an election year coming up, spending is expected to be front-loaded next year for both government and private enterprises. In addition, the easing of lending rates and reserve ratio requirements creates a possible synergy of efforts for the economy to flourish early on, and thus spur growth across industries and segments. Perhaps a key indicator to watch out for would be the re-emergence of the middle class, which will be reflected in the purchase of middle-class properties and increased home loan financing. Indeed, nothing is as exciting as anticipating something new, and though this year is nothing short of amazing, 2025 is already brimming with hope and excitement for what is to come.  See you all next year!

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